: ). “I’m about to reveal the details of a company that looks remarkably similar to what Berkshire Hathaway looked like 40 years ago when they were making huge double digit returns. Hey Travis, Happy Holidays. He is still running the big picture show at Fairfax and makes the big investment decisions, like Buffett does at Berkshire Hathaway, but he’s 20 years younger than Buffett so the succession talk hasn’t come up to a large degree just yet. But if we can’t find that $100 million company that’s going to become a $200 billion company in 30 years, then we at least want to find the $10 billion company that could outpace the market and become a $200 billion company… right? Although you probably are an old fashioned guy, still using your old IBM Selectric! “And their common stock price has compounded at 19.8% annually. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) . Travis…Once again THANKS for your great insights…Dan Ferris (who I enjoy following) is still high on FRFHF ; first recomended 2009 and holding, and the lastest write-up 8/2013 with a buy up to price of $430…. Please do not use personal information (like your email address) in the text of your comments. By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, November 3, 2011. By clicking any link on this page you are giving your consent for us to set cookies. “The company’s founder puts his money where his mouth is—owning roughly 8% of his company’s stock.—about 85% of his net worth is in the stock.”, And we’re told that one of the main reasons it’s a better bet than Berkshire Hathaway is because it’s “just 3% the size of Buffett’s Berkshire… and that’s a position Warren Buffett would love to be in” …. Don’t worry, Mizrahi throws us a few more clues … such as that it has $1.1 billion in cash on the balance sheet, and that the two principals have their “skin in the game” with big insider ownership. I remember sending Travis the original “tease” on this one probably over a year ago and “guessing” that it was Fairfax without diligently checking all the clues as he does. Oddly enough, this letter is far more expensive than Hidden Values Alert (Hidden Values is about $200/year, Inevitable Wealth is more like $200/month), and has done significantly worse over the last year. The stock is currently valued at over $2600 per share. Why? That’s really the promise that newsletters are pitching, not that you can buy 1960s Berkshire but perhaps that you can buy 1990 Berkshire, when it was at about $6,000 a share on its way to the current $175,000 a share. As of last year that position was still losing money for them, and it’s a stance he’s held more or less steadily since 2010 (which is why Fairfax has missed much of the bull market over the last few years)… but that position probably looks a lot better on their books now than it did a year ago. “In fact, in the 29 years since the company began in 1985, this company’s book value has grown at a compounded rate of 21.1% per share each year. Berkshire Hathaway 101. It also does pay a dividend, which is paid annually in January and has been US$10 for the past three years — presumably that will continue (it does look like growth in Canadian dollar terms, but it’s not actually growing — Watsa has said he likes “a stable dividend”). A US investor, using and thinking in US dollars, would not. Covers long list of "great companies selling at a discount," recommends a value stock portfolio, and profiles one "bulletproof business" each month. So if you think that Watsa’s right about the next crisis, since he’s essentially been betting on it since we emerged from the last crisis, perhaps you’ll want to expose a bit of your portfolio to his strategy. In fact, one of the very first teasers covered here at Stock Gumshoe, way back in the glory days of 2007, was for Louis Navellier, of all people, promising that he’d found the company that might be Berkshire’s successor (that one was for Brookfield Asset Management, a copmany that I also like but that has been beaten by both Berkshire Hathaway and the S&P 500 in the interim). Recently , Fairfax invested in a Canadian retailer ” Reitmans” and this seems very questionable but perhaps there is some value as we will have to wait and see the Alternatively, you can buy the B version of the stock (BRKB or BRK-B) which trades at $216/share. And we get some more clues to feed into the Thinkolator: “It’s a company with a proven, history of success over more than three decades still run by the same two men that started the company back in the late 1970s. Learn how your comment data is processed. LUK holds notes that pay interest calculated as of 4% of the revenue from certain mines. I’ll admit to being tempted this time around, though this is the first glance I’ve taken at LUK in many months. LUK next reports … tomorrow, so that book value number is as stale as you can possibly make it. BlackBerry recently acquired Good Technology trying to move away from a proprietary device manufacturer to an open array including iPhones and Androids. Berkshire Hathaway has another advantage over Fairfax. PLEASE do not use my name when this reply is printed. They do have a large stake in the firm, roughly 20% between them, though both have also done some insider selling this year (at prices about $10 higher than the shares are now, for whatever that’s worth). Leucadia’s founders, Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg, are a lot more media-averse than Buffett, though, and don’t do much to get attention the way he does (or perhaps it’s just that no one asks them, I dunno). I gotta get me one of those. What's the next "Berkshire Millionaire" maker being teased by Park Avenue Investment Club? It’s an old strategy, of course — newsletters have been promising to find the next Warren Buffett for as long as there have been teaser ads. I forgot who, but there have been several ANALysts who have called LUK a Jr. Berkshire Hathaway. “The Next Berkshire Hathaway: How this ‘Must-Buy’ Could Help Make You a Buffett-Sized Fortune” Sleuthing a teaser from Charles Mizrahi's Inevitable Wealth Portfolio By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe , November 3, 2011 In fact, the stock price is right now trading at book value.”. Companies." Accessed June 8, 2020. Imagine if … Some people can’t buy even a single share of a $400 stock, to be sure, in which case it’s probably wiser to build up a core index fund position before dabbling in individual stocks, but if you like the company and would happily buy 100 shares at $4 a share you should also be happy buying one share for $400. We were deciphering pitches about the “next Warren Buffett” during the very first days of publishing Stock Gumshoe back in 2007. Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH.TO FRFHF) . But one company could provide the next opportunity: Greenwich-based insurer W. R. Berkley Corp (NYSE:WRB). My son on the other hand has been hired by a well established Silicon Valley start-up that is still private and I won’t name until their IPO is imminent and I have enough data to write about it. One of the best units is Berkadia, a 50/50 joint venture with Berkshire (BRK.A) that originates commercial mortgages. Fortescue wanted to issue additional notes to other third parties which LUK claims is against their agreement. (Discl: I am long both, and have been for many many years). And no dividends, the stockholders in order to make a profit must sell their appreciated stock. Under his 21 years at the helm, the company has compounded its earnings at a rate of 11.7%. The two largest reductions by far were Apple and Wells Fargo, but neither was a huge shock. OK, so that will sound a little familiar to some of you — particularly the “Canada’s Warren Buffett” bit, … but let’s share just a few more clues from the ad to build the suspense a little: “Right now—at this very moment—the company has a whopping total of more than $2.2 billion in cash and short term investments sitting on their balance sheet…keeping their powder dry for the next opportunity that comes their way. Not that it will outperform the market all the time, but buying great companies at good prices and letting them compound their earnings (or maybe even their dividends) has certainly been a safe and effective strategy for decades. Berkshire stock climbed 20% in the third quarter, surpassing the 8.5% gain in the S&P 500 Index during the same period. Must be a lot of interesting smaller insurance companies to invest in.. Fairfax has seen its recent high. Regards, Shailesh The Next Berkshire Hathaway: How you must buy this stock to make Buffett sized fortunes. More good money after bad. Curt, if you’re having problems seeing the site please use the Contact button at the top and let us know what browser and OS you’re using, it looks fine in all of our test environments. I bought on the advice of Ferris’ predecessor for the same publication, Tom Dyson. (I know I don’t need to tell you how important that is at this very moment.). Historical daily share price chart and data for Berkshire Hathaway since 1980 adjusted for splits. We use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience. I don’t think of them remain in his portfolio. BRK.A. an astute investor and businessman in Canada but seems to be branching out as a “I’m about to reveal the details of a company that looks remarkably similar to what Berkshire Hathaway looked like 40 years ago when they were making huge double digit returns…. But how do you find the next Berkshire Hathaway? The all-time high Berkshire Hathaway stock closing price was 417905.00 on April 29, 2021.; The Berkshire Hathaway 52-week high stock price is 417905.00, which is 0% above the current share price. But right now – for reasons I’ll explain in a moment – you can buy its shares at a ridiculously low price.”. best wishes Which was a long preamble to get us to the point of today’s piece — that Charles Mizrahi is pitching another stock as the “next Berkshire” in selling subscriptions to his Inevitable Wealth Portfolio ($999 “on sale”) … and no, it’s not one of those in that long list above. Greenlight Capital Re (GLRE) , “This company focuses on buying well-managed companies…, They buy them below their intrinsic value…, The stock – which has compounded its book value at a rate of 21.1% per year – is trading at a ridiculously cheap price…. Not many people did that, but the few who did are endowing buildings at universities now… nice, right? "Vice Chairman’s Thoughts – … 19-20 where Watsa goes into some detail in how they’ve used hedging and derivatives to prepare for the possible crisis he sees coming, and compares that to the similar “hedging” they did in the years leading up to the 2008 collapse that helped them excel during the last downturn. 12 Comments Read Article. So is this the “next Berkshire?” Prefer a different one in that long list of pretenders to the throne? Wonder if it can balance a ball on its nose? Most insurance companies are valued by investors based largely on book value, with bad insurers or breakeven reinsurers trading for a discount to book and great specialty insurers getting a decent premium of up to as much as 1.5 to 2X book value. Disclosure: As noted above, I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Fairfax Financial Holdings, and Markel. Data source: Berkshire Hathaway 13-F. Market values as of 2/17/21. The reason I was quite sure, was because of Watsa’s involvement with Blackberry at the time my youngest son was hired by the then named RIM where he became part of the executive team charged with the turnaround strategy. And that’s not their only concentrated holding — Leucadia also owns a big chunk (about a quarter of the shares, according to their statement of more than 10 million direct shares held) of Mueller Industries (MLI), the pipe and plumbing manufacturer, and they’ve been adding to that position recently, too. The latest closing stock price for Berkshire Hathaway as of April 29, 2021 is 417905.00.. outcome of Blackberry and Reitmans ! Which would work out quite nicely, thanks very much. Full disclosure: Your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and Markel. If only we had purchased that stock (IBM) back in the day – OR BRKA or BRKB, when issued! Buffet takes stakes in public companies in deals that you or I could not get, and buys public companies and takes them private, essentially skimming as much money as he needs for any acquisitions he wants. This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. Incidentally, there’s also a big value investor holding the shares, Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme funds — and despite the beating his funds have taken lately, he does make value investors hearts go pitter-pat with his concentrated and sometimes contrarian calls … and he’s had some spectacular performance in the past. This is … Leucadia National Corp. (LUK). I do see recommendations for Leucadia frequently but just buying into a conglomerate won’t hack it. RB. It needs to pull back below 430 to be a buy again. Friday File: Hurricane Insurance, Gold, and GE. “Sign up now!” he suggests shamelessly). (Of course, no one ever went back and checked on the record of the other thousands of startup investment partnerships that were active at the time, or figured out how — other than luck and proximity — these people chose Buffett over the other folks, long since forgotten by time and poor performance, who would have been happy to manage their money). We use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience. Of course, LUK could also double far more easily than Berkshire if things break their way. I bought some Markel today. Mizrahi puts out the Hidden Values Alert, which has been covered with kind words by Hulbert from time to time and which reportedly follows Warren Buffett’s wisdom almost to the letter, but this pitch is for his Inevitable Wealth Portfolio, which I haven’t ever heard of before. I thought it was at first, to be honest — that’s because Mizrahi a couple years earlier was touting Leucadia (LUK) with exactly the same headline, “The Next Berkshire Hathaway: How this ‘Must-Buy’ Could Help Make You a Buffett-Sized Fortune.”, That turned out not to be a “must buy” just yet, Leucadia has been through some big changes over the past five years and is now one of the worst-performing “next Berkshire” stocks — and indeed, almost every time we hear a “next Berkshire” pitch, it turns out that the old Berkshire would have been a better buy at the time than the “next Berkshire.” (Leucadia is also down sharply since I wrote positively about it in March when it was in the low $20s.). Travis – I think that Curt was simply being polite with his “Change the Ink Ribbon on your typewriter.” I suspect he was suggesting that you write about something else! Thank you! I sure hope that happens!! Putting a reasonable chunk of your savings in the hands of investing Whiz Kid Warren Buffett back in the 1960s when he was starting his partnership would have been enough to create a family fortune today — assuming, of course, that you had held that investment the whole time and not sold when Warren had a bad year, as he has had on occasion, or when you’d gained 100% or 200% or even 1,000% and lightened up your position. I won’t trade any of those or any other stock mentioned above for at least three days. Oh, and if this is going to be the “next Berkshire Hathaway” it will have to be because the company is relatively smaller ($6 billion market cap) and nimbler, not because you’re catching it’s founding investors early in the game — both Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg are far closer to retirement age than Warren Buffett was in the 1960s (they’re now in their late-60s/early 70s, I think), so they’re close to having the same kind of succession concerns as Berkshire Hathaway (and, given their secretive nature and heavily concentrated holdings, perhaps bigger succession concerns). ” If you owned $C100 which was worth $US100 not so long ago when the two currencies were virtually equal and, now, $C100 will only buy you about $US73, how does that loss of value of the Canadian dollar (in $US terms) translate into an increase? Oooh, Buffett’s Seal of Approval! This site and Stock Gumshoe publications and authors do not offer individual financial, investment, medical or other advice. Over the last five years, though, he has been cautious about stock valuations and Fairfax’s investments have failed to keep up with the bull market. Like Berkshire, Leucadia has long been valued on growth in … You probably already know this: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has racked up amazing, life-changing returns over its 50-year history. damn you shouldn’t have sold bro, now Fairfax is at 717.99 a share….Never bargain off your share because of temporary deflation. We have left the original comments appended to this article. I would particularly urge you, if you’re considering Fairfax as a way to get into the insurance sector but also “hedge your bets” a bit on a market decline or deflationary crisis, to read the 2014 letter, particularly pp. I don’t know if there’s a “seal of approval” from Buffett, but Leucadia is certainly the kind of company he admires … if only because they admire him. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. swung to a quarterly profit on stock-market gains and better results from its insurance business. The ad has been slightly updated with new numbers over the years, and this article has been updated… and my opinion has changed a bit. “In fact, the ‘Next Berkshire Hathaway’ is so impressive that the company actually has a number of joint venture investments with Berkshire Hathaway and counts Warren Buffett as one of its fans. LUK does trade at a discount to book value at the moment, though with huge concentrated positions that book value is going to fluctuate a lot — book value is reported quarterly, but JEF, to name one of their big holdings, is down substantially since the end of June. With the possible exception of this most recent decade, when it seems that nothing was “safe” and little was “effective” (present company excepted, of course). I might also note that I bought additional Berkshire shares a bit over a month ago, as I told the Irregulars at the time, and I personally think that buying Berkshire at close to book value is a far lower-risk “no brainer” than buying LUK. ET “Simply put…this company has delivered exceptional returns for investors. Thank you. Other “next Berkshires” have been touted and teased through the years by many pundits, including Markel, Loews, Biglari Holdings, Eddie Lampert’s Sears and several others. His central key is to buy insurance companies first and own them so as to control. Apparently the analyst had connections to short sellers of the stock ! -Will. “$10,000 invested in this stock back in 1985 would now be worth more than $1.6 million, not including dividends. Can you please help decipher or direct me to the article if you already have. Stocks. Because it pays no dividend it is like a stealth IRA with no mandatory distribution requirements and interesting inheritance possibilities. Doesn’t mean that they are or were bad investments, of course, those have all been interesting and probably worthy companies in one way or another at times, and I have written about or owned several of those over the years (I currently own both Markel and Berkshire Hathaway shares, both are among my top five individual equity positions). A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy: NV Energy: Electric & Gas Distribution 91.1% 2013/12/19: $5.6 Billion: A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy: Omaha World-Herald: Media 100% 2011/12/01: $150 Million: Oriental Trading Company: Toy Party Craft 100% 2012/01/01: PacifiCorp: Electric Distribution 91.1% 2005/01/01 $9.4 billion “And keep in mind … Warren Buffett does very few joint ventures with other companies. FFH has over the last five years been gradually trending up, but mostly trading between 1X book and 1.4X book, and it’s right near the top of that range now with the book value at an all-time high in Canadian terms (C$500 per share)… but unfortunately, a lot of that increase in book value is because of the loss of value of the Canadian dollar, in US$ terms Fairfax has about the same book value per share that it did five years ago (about $370). Thank you. Prem Watsa has a very solid reputation as They have gone through lots of turbulence over the years and were successful in winning a lawsuit against a U.S. analyst who wrote negative comments and alleged their loss reserves were inadequate and understated ! I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days following publication, per Stock Gumshoe… Buying shares in companies poised to be the next Berkshire Hathaway might be your next best bet. Watsa’s very worried about deflation and is betting big on it, with a huge derivatives position that could be worth ~$100 billion if the US and Europe face a “30s style” deflation crisis. I owned some Berk for years and did sell for a profit – but I also studied Buffet’s annual letter for even more years. And its investment strategy has held up – and made investors money – in both good times and bad. Berkshire Hathaway. It sure looks like Watsa’s first move for BB. Markel (MKL), my favorite insurer, has been better than that with a 130% gain, Greenlight Re (GLRE), another stock I liked and owned (but have since sold) did far worse, losing 35% (mostly this year). Likewise, much of their earnings comes from sales of assets or other big transactions, so there’s really no predictable earnings-based valuation you can assign to the shares — much like with Berkshire Hathaway, the PE is fairly meaningless so don’t get too excited about the low number for trailing PE (and there isn’t a forecast PE, the company is tight enough with info and unforecast-able that it discourages analysts). O ne hundred seventy thousand dollars.. That's roughly how much one share of Berkshire Hathaway Class A (NYSE: BRK-A) stock is selling for these days.. 1. I own Berkshire shares personally and added to my position a few months ago when it dipped below 1.3X book value, not because I think it will generate 25X my investment in 20 years but because I think it’s better than the S&P 500 with less risk — today’s Berkshire is still a pretty good buy, with a fantastic collection of businesses, but it won’t be a growth rocket. “For the better part of the last three decades, this company has been run by a man known as ‘Canada’s Warren Buffett’ – and he’s used the same value-oriented strategies Buffett favors to deliver remarkable returns. Berk is a tax advantaged, no-load mutual fund as far as shareholders are concerned. So who is Mizrahi’s “next Berkshire Hathaway?” Thinkolator confirms that yes, this is Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH in Toronto, FRFHF on the pink sheets), a Canadian insurance conglomerate run by Prem Watsa, who has many times been referred to as the “Canadian Warren Buffett.”. It’s worth noting that Leucadia is far more risk-hungry and concentrated than Berkshire Hathaway is these days — the stock is taking a bit of a hit today because of their large holding in Jefferies (JEF) stock, they own about 27% of that investment banking group and recently increased the position, and JEF is being hurt by worries about SEC probes and Euro exposure (the company has tried to downplay those worries and the stock recovered much of the early morning panic selling today, I have no idea what’s on Jefferies’ books but the stock certainly — like many investment bankers — looks cheap now). Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK.B) is a multinational conglomerate holding company. but now it’s too late, and I’m not going back in this water. And if you’ve ever tried either of Mizrahi’s newsletters your fellow investors would love to know what you thought — you can review Hidden Values Alert here or Inevitable Wealth Portfolio here if you’ve ever subscribed. Find the latest Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New (BRK-B) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing. Sound like a worthy “next Berkshire” or a buy to you? But really, it’s tough to argue with a patient value investing strategy — at least for me, since it’s similar to what I try to do with my own money. Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings could surge as the economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information, read our disclaimer and privacy policy. Shortly after Ferris took over from Dyson he echoed the Fairfax recommendation. Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B Quick Quote BRK.B - Free Report) closed at $266.01 in the latest trading session, marking a +0.95% move from the … By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 23, 2015. Learn how your comment data is processed. And I started buying Markel shares and Google shares when my portfolio was much smaller, often just one or two shares at a time. Next Berkshire Hathaway by Inevitable Wealth Alert? If it’s a great company, then inflation will come back around. This “Retire on one stock” idea was trading for about US$440 a share when it was first teased by Mizrahi 2+ years ago, it has been fairly volatile since but as of now has risen about 7% — though in Canadian dollars it has done far better (up 42%), thanks to the soaring US$. Thanks, Travis. That is quite an undertaking in itself and speaks to the reason why Markel might just become the next mini Berkshire Hathaway. Is it a good buy today? Does Leucadia own insurance companies from which it can take the float? The last two years, in particular, have been excellent underwriting years, and when an insurance company makes money on underwriting that’s like getting paid to take a loan that you can use for your investment portfolio… which is lovely when the portfolio goes up in value. Last i heard, Fairfax had either sold their Blackberry position, or at least withdrawn from any further involvement in trying to rescue the company. I was hoping to say Whassup Watsa? September 1, 2017 / Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe Members Content. And yes, Leucadia has had at least one formal joint venture with Berkshire Hathaway, a commercial lender that they cofounded called Berkadia — Berkadia still exists, and I presume it’s probably still owned by the founders, it’s not big enough to be a Berkshire line-item but is fairly substantial for Leucadia. “So this great company actually comes with Warren Buffett’s very own Seal of Approval.”. And who can blame investors for looking? Why I’m investing in this stock from Jeremy Phillips. So it’s likely to yield 2% or so. Let us know with a comment below. This was before Chen was parachuted in and after 3 years he was let go under the new administration and spent 9 months looking for a new position. Please clear up the confusion that I have. Links to outside information and information share are welcome, soliciting is forbidden -- Stock Gumshoe cannot serve as an exchange for buying, selling or trading information beyond what you post in your comments for public view. The 2021 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting. great as always – but all these ideas about matching Buffett and Berk are missing the point. Indeed, their methodology and investment criteria are in the Buffet style. The market cap of the company is less than $10 billion, so in some ways you get the earnings from $2.50 or so of a Watsa-managed portfolio for every dollar you invest. Then I read that Watsa’s philosophy was to expect deflation and invest accordingly. government royalties. "2018 Annual Report," Page 31. We’ve mentioned Fairfax before, when it was pitched by Dan Ferris (back when he ran the 12% Letter) as “Canada’s 13% Income Secret” — and it is certainly still a much-discussed stock in value investing circles and has generated some headlines over the years, mostly because of Prem Watsa’s attempts to “rescue” Blackberry a few years back, and because of his very bearish stance on the markets. A Canadian and have followed Fairfax for over 2 years, at a time when it did not from... Your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway: how you must buy this stock from Jeremy Phillips to... The Fairfax recommendation Leucadia frequently but just buying into a conglomerate won ’ t trade any stock mentioned for! Stockholders in order to make Buffett sized fortunes, 2013 ( i know i don ’ t need tell! Is printed the throne 2021 seems promising a stock Gumshoe, November 3, 2011 for more information, our. 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